Christian Mahogany returns from IR: Injury analysis and return-to-play expectations
Analyzing 2025 return-to-play data after opening window
Christian Mahogany became the Lions 6th IR-return this season when he opened his 21-day practice window on December 10. Let’s recap his injury and predict his return date.
Suspected diagnosis: Left fibula fracture - November 2, 2025
The injury is suspected to be an isolated left fibula fracture which can have a relatively quick return despite it being a leg fracture. For example, Omarion Hampton, RB Chargers, had a very similar-looking injury and returned to play earlier this week on Monday Night Football - just 9 weeks post. Daniel Jones, QB Colts, didn’t even miss a game this season with his fibula fracture.
This Sunday’s game vs the Rams will be 6 weeks post-injury for Mahogany.
The quick return for Mahogany also likely rules out any significant ankle joint damage. This means he should have a full recovery with no long-term residual concerns.
It’s fortunate the impact on Mahogany’s leg did not cause a tib/fib fracture which would definitely have ended his season. The similarity in mechanism to other recent Lions injuries was astutely noted by a reader…
For comparison, here are the 2024 injury videos of Aidan Hutchinson and Khalil Dorsey, who both suffered tib/fib fractures…
Aidan Hutchinson
Khalil Dorsey
When can we expect Christian Mahogany to play?
We can get some hints by looking at the Lions return-to-play data so far from the 2025 season. With the opening of the window defined as Day 1, here is the day in which these players coming off IR/PUP/NFI played in a game:
Return-to-play day
4 - Khalil Dorsey (wrist)
12 - DJ Reed (hamstring)
14 - Daniel Thomas (forearm fracture)
16 - Marcus Davenport (pec/shoulder)
20 - Alim McNeill (ACL)
27 - Malcolm Rodriguez (ACL)
30 - Miles Frazier (knee)
never - Josh Paschal (back)
In general, players will use at least half of the 21-day window before playing. The exception may be upper extremity bone fractures that don’t really need a ramp-up time. It’s likely that Dorsey had a wrist fracture, and he played in just Day 4 of his window. Last season, Alex Anzalone came back from a forearm fracture to play in Day 5 of his window. Daniel Thomas had a forearm fracture and didn’t play until Day 14, so an early return is not a certainty.
Since Mahogany has a lower leg injury with associated leg muscle atrophy and loss of conditioning, a gradual ramp-up is valuable. Expect him to use at least half his window before playing. Thus, here are his most likely return dates:
Day 12 - December 21 vs Steelers
Day 16 - December 25 vs Vikings