Lions Medical Mailbag: Short Week Injuries & Recovery Timelines
Answering excellent questions from readers
The following is a collection of questions I’ve received on Substack or on X @JimmyLiaoMD. While I usually am able to give quick responses elsewhere, here at JimmyLiaoMD.com I can go more in-depth and delve into more “sensitive” topics.
The medical mailbag will be a regular feature, so feel free to send me questions anytime. I appreciate all of you who have engaged in intellectual discourse across all platforms. I especially appreciate all my paid supporters who get top priority on questions answered and can email me directly anytime.
Here are the 3 questions for today:
Can a herniated disc ever truly 100% recover?
Do you have any thoughts on an ideal rest period around short weeks like Thanksgiving?
Do you think LaPorta, Joseph, and Branch will be 100% after the bye or before?
Can Sam LaPorta’s herniated disc ever truly 100% recover?
A mild herniated disc of the spine can reabsorb on its own. Studies show that 90+% of herniated disc symptoms can improve without surgery.
Even if the disc is able to heal itself, the factors that caused the herniated disc in the first place could cause the problem to recur. Repeated hyperextension activities of the back - like blocking at the line - will aggravate the spine and the disc. This is the concern moving forward with Sam LaPorta, as well as why I had a red-flag on draft prospect Francis Mauigoa.
Once surgery becomes necessary like with LaPorta, the spine/disc anatomy is never going to be like it was previously, and thus no “100% recovery”. It’s an issue that will need to be monitored and managed the rest of his career. Recurrences are possible as seen with JJ Watt in 2016 who returned from disc herniation surgery in about 2 months, only to re-injure it and get another surgery.
Can LaPorta continue to play at a high level without aggravating his spinal disc? That is the big question.
What is the ideal rest period around short weeks like Thanksgiving?
With the increasing number of off-schedule NFL games, this injury question is becoming increasingly important.
Keep in mind that performing credible, valuable studies on injuries is extremely challenging given the high number of variables involved, as well as privacy restrictions. Here are the results of 3 studies of short weeks:
Perez et al - FEWER injuries during short weeks compared to normal weeks.
Sharma et al - Difference in injury rates between short weeks and normal weeks was NEGLIGIBLE.
Haralson et al - NO DIFFERENCE in knee extensor injury rates between short weeks and normal weeks. Although, there was a LOWER INCIDENCE during long weeks (>7d rest).
The bottom line is that it’s inconclusive if there is actually greater risk to players during a short week.
What’s crucially important to separate out is the exact type of injury, mechanism of injury, and severity of injury. It’s not valuable whatsoever to lump all injuries into one big pile.
My guess is that there are certain injuries that have a slightly higher risk during short weeks. Examples include accumulation injuries as suspected with Sam LaPorta’s disc and Brian Branch’s Achilles. Concussions may fall into this category as well.
On the other hand, there are certain injuries that may actually benefit from short weeks - when all the players on the field are presumably slower and less powerful due to fatigue. This would include contact injuries like fracture, MCL, and concussion. (Yes, I know that I mentioned concussion as a potentially higher risk due to accumulation, which highlights how tricky this question is to answer.) Potentially, slower players would decrease the risk of non-contact ACL and hamstrings also.
When is the expected return for Sam LaPorta, Kerby Joseph, and Brian Branch?
The Lions 2026 bye lands on Week 6 - October 18. Here’s the expected return timeline for each player:
Brian Branch’s Achilles - Expected return after the bye
Branch’s Achilles injury occurred on December 4, 2025. A 10-11 month recovery would be typical (example: Dre Greenlaw, 49ers LB, returned in 10 months in 2024). A good target for Branch might be to return immediately after the bye on October 25 - a 10.5 month recovery.
Branch’s final-year contract status could be a factor in his return timeline. It’s impossible to know how it affects the player’s thinking, but it’s possible he would want to return as soon as possible to prove his recovery and earn an extension early in the season. Thus, a return at the 9-month mark for the season opener on September 13 vs the Saints, while unlikely, is not out of the question.
Sam LaPorta’s spine - Expected return in Week 1
LaPorta had his herniated disc surgery in November of 2025. We don’t know exactly what kind of operation he had. A common microdiscectomy could have a return to play in about 4 months - that’s how long it took fellow TE, Rob Gronkowski, to return to game action in 2013.
This means LaPorta could easily be ready right now, and should definitely be ready for the start of the season - unless there is a setback.
Kerby Joseph’s knee - Expected return in Week 1
Joseph’s knee issue is suspected to be a chronic, wear-and-tear cartilage issue that can’t heal itself. His last appearance in a game was on October 12, 2025.
With this kind of issue, it’s about preserving the remaining mileage on the knee - like you might with a car tire. What this means is Kerby will likely be at his peak ability in Week 1 of the season. There would be no medical reason to delay his return. The only reason to have him return later is for strategic reasons like prioritizing games later in the season.
The big question is how long can his knee hold up as he starts to perform strenuous football activities. Last season, his knee showed up on the injury report after just Week 1. In Week 4, he had a significant aggravation. After Week 6, his season was over.
For more discussion on mitigating injury risk…